The answer to this question is interesting and a little complicated. And it does not involve Pakistan only as West Indies, Bangladesh and possibly Sri Lanka are also facing a similar situation. A little look into the table shows that Pakistan with 89 points, are currently placed at 8th position in the ICC ODI ranking and are scheduled to play at least nine more ODIs before the cut-off date, which is September 30th, 2017.
Top seven teams on ICC rankings, along with the host England, will qualify directly for the ICC Cricket World Cup 2019 on the cutoff date. Whereas, the bottom of the table teams will join associate teams in qualifiers to be played in Bangladesh next year for remaining two berths to the World Cup.
The present ICC ranking shows an exciting competition between three teams for finishing among top 8th before the cut-off date. Bangladesh at 7th with 92 points, Pakistan at 8th with 89 points and West Indies at 9th with 84 points. Sri Lanka look a little bit comfortable at 6th with 98 points.
Pakistan are scheduled to play three-match ODI series against West Indies, starting this week. A 3-0 win against West Indies will put Pakistan to 7th position with 92 points, a little above Bangladesh on decimal points.
On other hand, Bangladesh are scheduled to play Ireland and New Zealand next month before Champions Trophy and even one loss against lower-ranked Ireland would create problems for Bangladesh.
But before the tri-series, there will be an annual update of ICC ranking where Pakistan’s poor record of 2013-14 will get eliminated from ranking calculations (currently it carries 50% of weightage) and not-so-good results of 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 will have weightage reduced to half.
Pakistan lost 16 out of 23 ODIs during the period 2014-2015, which also includes Pakistan’s series loss at the hand of Bangladesh soon after the World Cup 2015. Weighing down that result means, Bangladesh would also lose points it got from winning the series against Pakistan.
The baggage of defeats by Sri Lanka, New Zealand and Australia will also be halved from Pakistan’s shoulder in ranking calculations.
But, simultaneously, West Indies – that lost 10 out of 18 ODIs in the same period will also have similar advantage as of Pakistan, it will also lose the baggage of losing all games in 2013/2014 period.
Sri Lanka will also lose some points that it carried after winning 18 ODIs, includes the run in the ICC World Cup 2015, all will be halved from Sri Lanka’s account, which is likely to dent its position.
The calculations from matches of 2015/16 will cut to half weightage, West Indies during that period played just three ODIs and lost all of them, against Sri Lanka. Pakistan played 17, lost 8 and won 8, the defeat includes one ODI loss against Zimbabwe. So, after the annual update, the weight of that infamous defeat will cut to half.
Matches played after May 1, 2016 will have full impact on rankings. Pakistan have so far, won 6 out of 14. Bangladesh have won 4 out of 12, Sri Lanka have won 7 out of 25 and West Indies winning just 4 out of 17 matches.
So, the annual update is likely to benefit Pakistan, but will bring mix fortunes for Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and West Indies making the run to world cup qualification more interesting.
Before the cut-off date, Pakistan are scheduled to play nine ODIs and all against better-ranked teams (provided if Bangladesh also keeps ranking better than Pakistan), winning against better-ranked teams is always beneficial in such scenario, while losing to them would not have such a grave impact on the team in rankings.
West Indies are scheduled to play 13 ODIs. Five each against England and India while three against Pakistan. Matches against India and England would provide West Indies with an opportunity to better their rankings by positive results against better-ranked teams.
Bangladesh are also scheduled to play nine matches, including three against Pakistan, but two matches are against Ireland and if Ireland manages to upset Bangladesh, then defeat by a lowly ranked team would be alarming for Bangladesh team. Sri Lanka are also scheduled to play 11 matches.
With ICC annual update around the corner and enough matches remaining for all the teams, the scenario for World Cup 2019 qualification on basis of ranking looks exciting and complicated which will keep fans from at least four teams on their toes for next few months.
According to possible scenarios, Sri Lanka and West Indies will get five points deducted from its current tally after the annual update, Bangladesh and Pakistan will get between 1.5 to 2 points deducted from its present calculation.
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